Business gaps explorer

Which kinds of business are thin on the ground in each Dufferin community, compared with the county as a whole? 4 indications across 8 municipalities, sorted by score.

Indications only, not market studies. These are indications only, not market studies. A missing business does not mean there is demand for one: residents may happily shop in the next town, online, or not need it at all. OpenStreetMap is volunteer-mapped and incomplete, especially in rural townships. Do your own research and talk to the contacts listed before you invest.

Grand Valley · Retail

Car dealer

74score

Indication only Confidence: medium None mapped locally

Mapped in Grand Valley: 0
At the county rate: about 1.2 (1 per 3,155 residents)
Population, 2021: 3,851
StatCan, with employees: 0 vs about 0.8 supports
Nearest alternative: Orangeville Volkswagen, Mono, ~17.4 km

OpenStreetMap lists 0 in Grand Valley (data as of 2026-10-18). At the Dufferin County rate (about 1 per 3,155 residents, 21 county-wide), Grand Valley's 3,851 residents would match about 1.2. Nearest listed: Orangeville Volkswagen (Mono), about 17.4 km from the town centre in a straight line. Statistics Canada business counts (January 2026, locations with employees) list 0 in NAICS 4411 'Automobile dealers' in Grand Valley, vs about 0.8 at the county rate: this supports the indication.

Industry & workforce Verified fact

Retail trade employs 11.4% of the labour force living in Grand Valley, vs 11.6% county-wide and 10.8% in Ontario.

Share of the employed labour force living in the area (by place of residence), 2021 Census. Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 (income: 2020).

NAICS 44-45: 8 locations with employees in Grand Valley. Median wages (ER3540): Retail salespersons and visual merchandisers (NOC 64100) $17.6 · Cashiers (NOC 65100) $17.6 · Retail sales supervisors (NOC 62010) $19.36.

NOC = National Occupational Classification, Canada's standard job codes used for wage data. NAICS = North American Industry Classification System, the standard industry codes used for business counts. Codes link to the official Statistics Canada definitions (NOC 2021 Version 1.0, NAICS Canada 2022 Version 1.0).

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Grand Valley · Retail

Clothing store

72score

Indication only Confidence: low None mapped locally

Mapped in Grand Valley: 0
At the county rate: about 1.2 (1 per 3,313 residents)
Population, 2021: 3,851
StatCan, with employees: 0 vs about 0.5 inconclusive
Nearest alternative: Estilo, Orangeville, ~15.6 km

OpenStreetMap lists 0 in Grand Valley (data as of 2026-10-18). At the Dufferin County rate (about 1 per 3,313 residents, 20 county-wide), Grand Valley's 3,851 residents would match about 1.2. Nearest listed: Estilo (Orangeville), about 15.6 km from the town centre in a straight line. Statistics Canada business counts (January 2026, locations with employees) list 0 in NAICS 4581 'Clothing and clothing accessories retailers' in Grand Valley, vs about 0.5 at the county rate.

Industry & workforce Verified fact

Retail trade employs 11.4% of the labour force living in Grand Valley, vs 11.6% county-wide and 10.8% in Ontario.

Share of the employed labour force living in the area (by place of residence), 2021 Census. Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 (income: 2020).

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Grand Valley · Services

Beauty / nail / spa

67score

Indication only Confidence: medium None mapped locally

Mapped in Grand Valley: 0
At the county rate: about 1 (1 per 3,897 residents)
Population, 2021: 3,851
StatCan, with employees: 2 vs about 3.1 supports
Nearest alternative: Tan-Tations, Orangeville, ~15.5 km

OpenStreetMap lists 0 in Grand Valley (data as of 2026-10-18). At the Dufferin County rate (about 1 per 3,897 residents, 17 county-wide), Grand Valley's 3,851 residents would match about 1.0. Nearest listed: Tan-Tations (Orangeville), about 15.5 km from the town centre in a straight line. Statistics Canada business counts (January 2026, locations with employees) list 2 in NAICS 8121 'Personal care services' in Grand Valley, vs about 3.1 at the county rate: this supports the indication. (That NAICS group is broader than this business type.)

Industry & workforce Verified fact

Construction employs 13.6% of the labour force living in Grand Valley, vs 11.3% county-wide and 7.3% in Ontario.

Share of the employed labour force living in the area (by place of residence), 2021 Census. Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 (income: 2020).

NAICS 23: 27 locations with employees in Grand Valley. Median wages (ER3540): Electricians (NOC 72200) $36 · Plumbers (NOC 72300) $32.5 · Carpenters (NOC 72310) $32.5.

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Grand Valley · Food & drink

Fast food / takeout

62score

Indication only Confidence: low

Mapped in Grand Valley: 1
At the county rate: about 2.8 (1 per 1,380 residents)
Population, 2021: 3,851
StatCan, with employees: 6 vs about 6.3 inconclusive
Nearest alternative: Mr. Sub, Orangeville, ~14.9 km

OpenStreetMap lists 1 in Grand Valley (data as of 2026-10-18). At the Dufferin County rate (about 1 per 1,380 residents, 48 county-wide), Grand Valley's 3,851 residents would match about 2.8. Nearest listed: Mr. Sub (Orangeville), about 14.9 km from the town centre in a straight line. Statistics Canada business counts (January 2026, locations with employees) list 6 in NAICS 7225 'Full-service restaurants and limited-service eating places' in Grand Valley, vs about 6.3 at the county rate. (That NAICS group is broader than this business type.)

Industry & workforce Verified fact

Accommodation and food services employs 2.9% of the labour force living in Grand Valley, vs 5.2% county-wide and 5.3% in Ontario.

Share of the employed labour force living in the area (by place of residence), 2021 Census. Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 (income: 2020).

NAICS 722: 7 locations with employees in Grand Valley. Median wages (ER3540): Restaurant and food service managers (NOC 60030) $27.47 · Chefs (NOC 62200) $22 · Cooks (NOC 63200) $18.

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What's mapped now

Businesses counted per municipality across 54 types (OpenStreetMap + our directory, as of 2026-10-18): Orangeville 352 · Shelburne 112 · Mono 77 · Grand Valley 34 · Mulmur 35 · Melancthon 12 · Amaranth 7 · East Garafraxa 8. Full counts: inventory JSON.

Methodology

Inventory: We counted businesses by type in each of the eight municipalities using OpenStreetMap (Geofabrik Ontario extract, data as of 2026-10-18, © OpenStreetMap contributors, ODbL), plus visitor-facing businesses from our own directory that OpenStreetMap was missing (matched by name or within 250 m). Places were assigned to a municipality by their map location inside the municipal boundary.
Benchmark: For each business type we use the Dufferin County rate: residents per business across the whole county (2021 Census population 66,257). A municipality's 'expected' count is its 2021 population divided by that rate. We did not find a verifiable published benchmark for comparable Ontario towns, so we don't use one.
Score (0 to 100): Higher when a municipality has fewer businesses than the county rate predicts, relative to how many it would 'expect'. Types where the county rate predicts under one business, or where there's no shortfall, are not listed. +10 when there are none at all. Scores are reduced by 60% when a business of that type is within 5 km (likely served just across a boundary) and by 40% in rural townships, whose residents usually shop in the towns. Campgrounds aren't scored for the three urban municipalities.
Second evidence line: Where a business type maps to a Statistics Canada NAICS industry, we also compare Canadian Business Counts (January 2026: business locations with employees, counted where they are located) with the county rate. If they also show a shortfall, confidence rises from low to medium. If they show as many as the county rate predicts or more, the score is halved and confidence stays low. Some NAICS groups are broader than our types (for example 7225 covers all restaurants, cafés and takeout), and businesses without employees aren't counted.
Nearest alternative: Straight-line distance from the town centre (Orangeville, Shelburne, Grand Valley) or from a central point inside each township, to the nearest mapped business of that type, including ones just outside Dufferin. Driving distance will be longer.
Confidence: Low by default. Medium only when the municipality would expect at least 3 such businesses, the county has at least 10 mapped, and none is within 5 km. Nothing is rated high: high would need a local count checked on the ground or a professional market study. Editors can add local knowledge or hide gaps that are wrong.

Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL). Population: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (sources). Spot a missing business? Add it on OpenStreetMap and it will count at the next refresh.

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